System status
Snapshot freshness, provenance, and fallback state
This is the trust surface. It makes stale data, fallback activation, baseline usage, and model quality visible without requiring readers to inspect raw artifacts.
Alert Type
No Clear Leader
Primary Target
onset
Model Status
monitoring_only
No Clear Leader
Yes
Publication
Source Kind
preferred
Freshness
fresh
Published At
Sep 22, 2026, 8:42 AM UTC
Forecast As Of
2026-09-21
Coverage
272 countries
Current Watch
Iran
Preferred published snapshot is active.
Threshold Policy
Publish Top N
10
Publish Threshold
0.00%
Operating
60.0%
Warning
50.0%
Alert
0.00%
Model Provenance
Model: logit
Version: country_week_onset_logit_30d
Structural prior active: Yes
Structural prior run: country_week_onset_structural_90d
Structural artifact freshness: Sep 22, 2026, 8:51 AM UTC
Primary backtest model: logit
Top backtest model: logit
Calibration method: isotonic
Operating Metrics
Episode recall: 100.0%
Recall@5: 50.0%
Recall@10: 60.0%
False alerts per true alert: 53.4
No clear leader rate: 100.0%
PR AUC delta: 0.0012901924099855094
ROC AUC delta: 0.3323957481602617
F1 delta: 0
Brier delta: 0.00001795704929909148