System status
Snapshot freshness, provenance, and fallback state
This is the trust surface. It makes stale data, fallback activation, baseline usage, and model quality visible without requiring readers to inspect raw artifacts.
Alert Type
No Clear Leader
Primary Target
onset
Model Status
monitoring_only
No Clear Leader
Yes
Publication
Source Kind
preferred
Freshness
critical
Published At
Mar 29, 2026, 12:34 AM UTC
Forecast As Of
2026-03-23
Coverage
30 countries
Current Watch
Unavailable
The published forecast is beyond its validity window. Country scores are withheld until a new source-backed snapshot is produced.
Threshold Policy
Publish Top N
10
Publish Threshold
0.88%
Operating
60.0%
Warning
50.0%
Alert
0.88%
Model Provenance
Model: logit
Version: country_week_onset_logit_30d
Structural prior active: Yes
Structural prior run: country_week_onset_structural_90d
Structural artifact freshness: Mar 29, 2026, 12:42 AM UTC
Primary backtest model: logit
Top backtest model: prior_rate
Calibration method: isotonic
Operating Metrics
Episode recall: 100.0%
Recall@5: 100.0%
Recall@10: 100.0%
False alerts per true alert: 4
No clear leader rate: 94.8%
PR AUC delta: -0.00016835016835016828
ROC AUC delta: 0.3956537912750725
F1 delta: 0
Brier delta: -0.0003279632611094298