Primary target
GeoRisk is designed first as an early-warning system for conflict onset. The primary operational question is:
Which country is most likely to move from a quiet or low-violence state into meaningful organized violence within the next 30 days?
That target is distinct from escalation. A country can already be active, dangerous, and newsworthy without being an onset case.
Secondary target
Escalation remains an operational surface, but it is secondary. Escalation answers a different question:
Which already-active country is most likely to worsen materially in the next 30 days?
The site keeps both concepts visible so users can tell whether the model is trying to warn before a conflict breaks out or track an already-active theater.
Alert types
The site publishes one of four machine-backed alert states:
Onset WatchEscalation WatchMonitoring OnlyNo Clear Leader
Onset Watch is the desired early-warning output. Escalation Watch is a secondary operational state for active theaters. Monitoring Only means the system has signal but not enough evidence for a promoted alert. No Clear Leader means the ranking is too weak or too tied to justify a sharp public lead.
Score interpretation
The score is a ranked probability surface, not a claim that conflict is predetermined. It should be read as a relative short-horizon warning signal conditioned on the current data snapshot.
Users should care less about the raw number in isolation and more about:
- which target is active
- whether the model is promoted or still monitoring
- whether the system abstained
- how the current model performed in walk-forward backtests
Feature mix
The model uses a mixed signal stack:
- recent event intensity and media attention
- acceleration and delta features
- quiet-period flags for onset logic
- spillover and neighbor exposure
- macro, governance, climate, trade, and humanitarian context
The live system now uses a two-layer design. A slower 90-day structural onset prior estimates medium-horizon susceptibility, and the faster weekly 30-day onset trigger consumes that prior alongside recent trigger signals.
Language discipline
GeoRisk does not claim certainty. It claims that the short-horizon probability of onset or escalation has increased relative to the current panel. That is a narrower and more defensible statement than predicting a specific political outcome with certainty.