Middle East / IRN
Predicted conflict: Iran / Israel
Iran and Israel now sit at the center of the theater desk as cross-border signaling, proxy activation, and corridor exposure reinforce the probability of a wider regional escalation cycle.
Report-led monitoring keeps this country visible while the model remains in no-clear-leader mode. Signals synthesize event, narrative, trade, shipping, governance, and humanitarian layers into a theater-oriented risk read.
Watch Rank
01
Predicted Conflict
Iran / Israel
Primary country focus: Iran
Latest Brief
Mar 27, 2026
Iran-Israel theater watch: cross-border signaling and regional spillover
Forecast Window
30d
Snapshot week 2026-09-21
Publication Metadata
Published
Sep 22, 2026, 8:42 AM UTC
Freshness
fresh
Model
country_week_onset_logit_30d
Target
country_week_onset_30d
System status: Preferred published snapshot is active.
Top Drivers
Driver 01
ACLED events (28d): 0
Driver 02
GDELT events (7d): 1
Driver 03
Food price index: 105.0
Chronology
01
Week of 2026-09-21: 0 ACLED events in the trailing 7 days.
02
Trailing 28-day ACLED events: 0.
03
GDELT event count in the trailing 7 days: 1.
Related Reporting
Iran and Israel now sit at the center of the theater desk as cross-border signaling, proxy activation, and corridor exposure reinforce the probability of a wider regional escalation cycle.
Dossier Coverage
This country also has curated dossier context in the repository.