Elexion election intelligence
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SDCOFA MODEL WATCH

Baseline ensemble active · Gaussian and Markov challengers gated by walk-forward evidence

1,000,000 RUNS
United States flag NATIONAL FORECAST

United States 2028 Presidential

A structurally even race with unusually wide early-cycle uncertainty.

ELECTION WINDOW0DAYS
D
STRUCTURAL FORECASTstructural-only · constitutional

UNVALIDATED SCENARIO: 0 jurisdiction-specific out-of-sample folds. This is not a backtested call.

WIN PROBABILITYMonte Carlo ensemble
INC
Democratic coalition51%COMPETITIVE
CHL
Republican coalition49%COMPETITIVE
MODEL±6pt90% RANGE
SAFE DEMTOSS-UPSAFE GOP
PATHWAY TO MAJORITY270 needed
DEM MEDIAN272
GOP MEDIAN266
270

National layout only · official regional model activates after validated boundaries and inputs.

VOTE & SEAT PROJECTION90% credible interval
DEM49%44%–55%272 (241–303)
GOP49%43%–54%266 (235–297)
OOTH2%1%–4%0 (0–0)
TURNOUT MEDIAN66%
MODEL DRIVER MATRIXContext only — zero model effect
Real disposable incomeBaseline
54
Executive approvalEarly cycle
38
Partisan alignmentHigh
82
Polling signalNot yet available
5
CONTEXTCONFIDENCENOT SCORED
NO CAUSAL DRIVER COEFFICIENTS ACTIVEContext signals do not move this forecast

Country-specific effects require dated inputs and successful walk-forward validation before activation.

PUBLIC BASELINE VS CHALLENGERSStrict walk-forward promotion gate
PUBLIC MODELbaseline ensemble
CHALLENGERSGaussian · Markov momentum
HISTORICAL BRIER LEADERNot established
DECISIONBaseline retained

Eight or more strict source-vintage folds required before either challenger can replace baseline.

0 WALK-FORWARD FOLDS · NO WINNER DECLARED
MODEL DIAGNOSTICSFor the statistically curious
BINARY ENTROPY1.000 bits1.000 = maximum uncertaintySIMULATION NOISE ONLY±0.050 ppNot total forecast error90% SHARE WIDTH11.0 ppLeading modeled blocFORECAST HORIZON0 daysMeasured from model as-of dateHORIZON MULTIPLIER×1.00Applied to structural volatilityEFFECTIVE VOLATILITY0%After horizon and evidence adjustmentsLIVE POLL WEIGHTN/ANo source-vintage poll aggregateWALK-FORWARD FOLDS0Vintage proof shown above

IMMUTABLE FORECAST HISTORY

Snapshot replay

Historical comparison activates after a second immutable publication.

SOURCE LEDGER

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