Cloudy&Shiny Index | Monarch Castle Technologies

Sentiment and Forecast

Cloudy&Shiny Index

44.1

CLOUDY | Neutral

Sentiment Gauge

0 FEAR50 NEUTRAL100 GREED

48H Composite Trend

IndexSmoothed

24H Forecast Path

Base: 46.3 +2.2 (CLOUDY)

Bear 43.4 | Bull 49.2 Spread 5.8

Regime Transition 24H

STORMY

0.0%

CLOUDY

100.0%

SHINY

0.0%

Most Likely: CLOUDY

Forecast Driver Waterfall

Stock

+0.46

Crypto

+0.24

VIX-Inv

+1.47

Total Delta +2.16

Stock Sentiment

Crypto Sentiment

VIX Inverse

Methodology and Weights

Score = (Stock x 0.40) + (Crypto x 0.30) + ((100 - VIX norm) x 0.30)

Stock sentiment and Crypto fear/greed are normalized to 0-100.

VIX is normalized to 0-100 over rolling history, then inverted so higher means risk-on.

Regime bands: 0-20 STORMY, 21-80 CLOUDY, 81-100 SHINY.

Stock Component

40.0%

Crypto Component

30.0%

Inverse VIX

30.0%

US Basket

32.7%

Asia Basket

26.9%

Europe Basket

10.4%

Performance and Forecast Evidence

1D Delta

-0.9

Day-over-day mood shift

7D Delta

-8.7

Weekly regime movement

Intraday Vol

0.84

24h standard deviation

Component Spread

36.9

Stock/Crypto/VIX divergence

Momentum 6H

-0.1

Short-horizon acceleration

Backtest MAE 1H

0.47

Rolling out-of-sample error

Backtest MAE 6H

2.60

Mid-horizon forecast error

Backtest MAE 24H

7.66

Daily horizon error

Direction Hit 24H

27.3%

N=220 rolling windows

Forecast Confidence Dashboard

Coverage 24H

41.4%

Bias 24H

-0.11

Error Drift

-4.40

Asset Performance vs 60-Day MA

S&P 500

SPY

BELOW MA

40.6

RSI: 43 Wt: 16.4%

Nasdaq 100

QQQ

BELOW MA

20.2

RSI: 41 Wt: 16.4%

DAX

^GDAXI

ABOVE MA

63.1

RSI: 65 Wt: 5.4%

CAC 40

^FCHI

ABOVE MA

46.9

RSI: 83 Wt: 3.7%

Nikkei 225

^N225

BELOW MA

18.8

RSI: 43 Wt: 5.1%

Shanghai Comp

000001.SS

BELOW MA

30.1

RSI: 51 Wt: 21.3%

Hang Seng

^HSI

BELOW MA

47.2

RSI: 73 Wt: 0.4%

BIST 100

XU100.IS

BELOW MA

7.5

RSI: 62 Wt: 1.4%

VIX Fear Index

^VIX

ABOVE MA

86.5

RSI: 51 Wt: 7.5%

US 20Y Treasury

TLT

ABOVE MA

47.6

RSI: 41 Wt: 7.5%

Gold

GLD

BELOW MA

74.6

RSI: 50 Wt: 7.5%

US Dollar Index

DX-Y.NYB

ABOVE MA

43.4

RSI: 58 Wt: 7.5%

Market Breadth Snapshot

Bullish 3

Neutral 5

Bearish 4

Reliability and Signal History

Feed Reliability

Stock LIVE 100.0%

Crypto LIVE 100.0%

VIX LIVE 100.0%

Overall Score: 100.0%

Data Age: 0.0 min

Fallback Rate: 0.0% | Failure Rate: 0.0%

Signal Board

Regime

Neutral

CLOUDY

Transition Prob

S 0.0% | C 100.0% | G 0.0%

CLOUDY

Momentum 6H

Stable

-0.1

Forecast 24H

Driver VIX-Inv | S +0.5 C +0.2 V +1.5

46.3

Forecast Spread

sigma 1.05 | slope +0.30/h

5.8

Backtest 24H

RMSE 11.11 | Hit 27.3% | N 220

7.66

Intraday Vol

Calm

0.84

Component Spread

Consensus Low

36.9

Market Breadth

Bull 3 | Neutral 5 | Bear 4

-8.3

Historical Feed

Nov 11 00:00

CLOUDY

44.1

Composite mood

Nov 10 00:00

CLOUDY

45.0

Composite mood

Nov 09 00:00

CLOUDY

43.8

Composite mood

Nov 08 00:00

CLOUDY

30.5

Composite mood

Nov 07 00:00

CLOUDY

29.6

Composite mood

Nov 06 00:00

CLOUDY

30.5

Composite mood

Nov 05 00:00

CLOUDY

31.8

Composite mood

Component Snapshot

Stock Sentiment39.1

Crypto Fear and Greed29.0

Inverse VIX Score65.9

Composite - Stock Gap+5.0