{ "meta": { "project": "tr-economic-sentiment", "generated": "2026-09-22T21:45:45.522623+00:00", "mode": "live", "version": "2.0.0", "horizon": "0–30 days", "classification": "economic-strain-screening-not-recession-currency-or-market-forecast", "coverage": "5/5", "confidence": "HIGH", "source_notes": [] }, "warning": { "score": 11.2, "raw_score": 11.2, "concurrence_bonus": 0.0, "status": "BASELINE", "headline": "Türkiye economic-strain pressure is baseline at 11.2/100.", "interpretation": "The index detects unusual, concurrent pressure across the lira, imported energy, reserves, household confidence and economic narrative. It is an early-warning screen, not a recession, currency or market forecast." }, "components": { "lira_dislocation": { "key": "lira_dislocation", "score": 0.0, "status": "BASELINE", "weight": 0.3, "available": true, "retained": false, "coverage": 127, "latest_date": "2026-09-22", "latest_value": 48.7323, "change_5d_pct": 0.36, "return_z": -2.5, "volatility_20d": 0.07, "volatility_z": -0.46, "method": "65% one-week TRY depreciation anomaly + 35% 20-session volatility anomaly.", "evidence": [ { "label": "USD/TRY reference rate", "value": 48.7323, "date": "2026-09-22", "url": "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/kurlar/kurlar_tr.html" } ] }, "imported_energy": { "key": "imported_energy", "score": 44.6, "status": "WATCH", "weight": 0.25, "available": true, "retained": false, "coverage": 117, "latest_date": "2026-09-15", "latest_value": 6351.5, "change_5d_pct": 23.73, "return_z": 1.62, "method": "Five-observation robust anomaly in Brent priced in TRY (Brent USD × USD/TRY).", "evidence": [ { "label": "Brent in TRY proxy", "value": 6351.5, "date": "2026-09-15", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU" } ] }, "reserve_buffer": { "key": "reserve_buffer", "score": 0.0, "status": "BASELINE", "weight": 0.2, "available": true, "retained": false, "coverage": 59, "latest_date": "2026-08-01", "latest_value": 69586.44, "change_1m_pct": 9.02, "adverse_3m_pct": -30.74, "change_z": -0.88, "method": "70% adverse monthly reserve-change anomaly + 30% three-month drawdown magnitude.", "evidence": [ { "label": "Reserves excluding gold, USD mn", "value": 69586.44, "date": "2026-08-01", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TRESEGTRM052N" } ] }, "consumer_confidence": { "key": "consumer_confidence", "score": 0.0, "status": "BASELINE", "weight": 0.15, "available": true, "retained": false, "coverage": 59, "latest_date": "2026-08-01", "latest_value": 90.8, "change_1m_pct": 1.11, "adverse_3m_pct": -5.83, "change_z": -0.22, "method": "70% adverse monthly confidence-change anomaly + 30% three-month deterioration.", "evidence": [ { "label": "OECD consumer confidence", "value": 90.8, "date": "2026-08-01", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSCICP02TRM460S" } ] }, "narrative_strain": { "key": "narrative_strain", "score": 0, "status": "BASELINE", "weight": 0.1, "available": true, "retained": false, "coverage": 123, "matched": 9, "weighted_density": 0.076, "method": "Weighted stress-term density in three fixed seven-day Turkish economic RSS queries.", "evidence": [ { "title": "Türkiye ekonomisinin finansallaşması ve fon balonu krizi - World Socialist Web Site", "source": "World Socialist Web Site", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiaEFVX3lxTFBmTzQxU0RPMGY1VFJWZG1uOTVjNndkZjJLYVFBaGRPVjdaMmJOeU9BZHVlX0JXdXUyNUVBLVZCYllOc2stRUprbTJ2T243U09oZUZqY2t2R3h4SXVrTDY1U2ZSS2pHeE8y?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-21T06:41:57+00:00", "terms": [ "kriz" ], "weight": 2.0 }, { "title": "Hakan Kara ve Kerim Rota’dan fon krizi uyarıları: Faiz indirimi alanı açabilir, dövize kaçış riski var - Para Analiz", "source": "Para Analiz", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQRHNZakpMUEl4bmJEN2hpRmxob213azNrX3FXUGVpTUZQZDR0YTYzZnR5ckotN2s2bmJmVENvQ3h1czV1dWVXdUZScjc0NkdxSGFxOXROVGF2ek54OU5jSFZLYS1yWDRiMGN2V3JWQ25mWjJHcnFaRG1XZGdfWldnNEJoWnFkazlvN3gtc1p3VUN4aGNXM0NZdl9wS1NwVjlqaG1PRGZLV0lYTHFRekVMVVNYNmQwSG8?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-20T08:08:27+00:00", "terms": [ "kriz" ], "weight": 2.0 }, { "title": "Goldman, Macaristan’ın enflasyon hedefi indirimini forint için olumlu görüyor - Investing.com Türkiye", "source": "Investing.com Türkiye", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxNUzBWQ09pV1ljLTMwMEFEN2lHbU5JMkltNkxsVkF1cW5aYW5PWkswcGZlSlBVRGNHXzFYc0txTWZMX0xEWDdxSkFhc0M5Vm44VkdPOUo0LW5uYkxpeTlBbloza2l0T2s2NGlVQnRkdVJqQVVxV0gzOEZpSnV3SUNTMlVUZW5HVXJpTTNiUFVidm4wZm8yekRiVnlPTFhfVVRZOVFEbEJMYUJFRDVram1xR2VsWVlRMmRVbW12QXZUY0cycUF3Umc0?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-21T16:01:46+00:00", "terms": [ "enflasyon" ], "weight": 0.8 }, { "title": "Altın, enflasyon ve faiz politikasının seyrine ilişkin beklentilerle 4 bin 380 dolar civarında yatay seyrediyor - Şarkul Avsat Türkçe", "source": "Şarkul Avsat Türkçe", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi7AFBVV95cUxNNVRxNW9mZFB4LW01dGpCZjNJUE5yenlhcnh3ZlpoeXU0Y05jajZPY3dLVWRXaW5obHhITlVaUl9rclktTTYxc3JWYjFqbFc5R0ZaYkVycW1HUEpjVXhsVEdZaHcydnlyYmVYVzNyeHl4c1Fobm9NNUR0clVQTFIxWjE3M1RKT0xXQUUtSTFfbXM2QkFYa01lUHR2QTVQbmZoTXJ0dWlCekx4Z01CSnE1ZHlrOXlPUWZWd3M4a2x0Q1BEdjl1R3FqMU9Bam5HckQ5bHpicURPcDZmVGJ0Y2lBY0NsclctX285WlhiVA?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-21T05:58:49+00:00", "terms": [ "enflasyon" ], "weight": 0.8 }, { "title": "Kesintisiz enflasyon ülkesi - Yeni Dönem Gazetesi", "source": "Yeni Dönem Gazetesi", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQSzZyVzJMUElMTGdxc1czdW9IS3pwVWh4aTVtUmxPT2JpcHBnZnFQX0tYRkNPWm9NSnJjRmJDd0VCSXFqMkJmYnlFck9mMWxXbjAxY2RCbzRfMDZqMHNrVDJvb3EwVXJ5WEZLMVJJdEtqMjN5TmxNRnh6YzdZRzJpR05STFJyNkJka3RiR1BJRQ?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-20T21:08:00+00:00", "terms": [ "enflasyon" ], "weight": 0.8 }, { "title": "Dev banka Türkiye’nin yıl sonu enflasyon tahminini yükseltti! - Ekonomim", "source": "Ekonomim", "url": "https://news.google.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?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-20T09:07:00+00:00", "terms": [ "enflasyon" ], "weight": 0.8 }, { "title": "Goldman Sachs’tan Türkiye için yüksek faiz ve enflasyon uyarısı - ekoturk.com", "source": "ekoturk.com", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPRVpwWlIwSklZZU5xZ2c5TW44dlBEOTFabWZ6dm5abmlCNFZjNXdEWHpwc193bDdDTkc2dWRtaHU2S29DOGg0ZUMxVmNfalItOE03UVZLVUxjZHdyaUNmZlJicTNBTWF3cHB2eGdERVhfTGJuUTdGX09acWlZSV9vTXRfSGlvQXdBNjBHZ1lVbS1Vb0FHWkNyazUzSFU?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-20T08:31:16+00:00", "terms": [ "enflasyon" ], "weight": 0.8 }, { "title": "Faiz sebep, enflasyon sonuç! - yenisafak.com", "source": "yenisafak.com", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxQN2xKX1RDQWhwWDNzYzg3dmtrTVdwMmFqWk5UMFk0b21QRUdSVXQwdWM5eTMxRGhZNkZsVkZqbE9tY2l6SmdLVExMckdJazFfekVxZ3FZYVN1TDRZc1pVdHhtRUM4dE1wUmF4Ml9GSzJuSDBmT2RHVl91NTNVTUZhei1kQi1pMFNKN3Z2RFl1T2ZaQQ?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-16T01:00:00+00:00", "terms": [ "enflasyon" ], "weight": 0.8 }, { "title": "Gül Alışar | 2026’nın Son Çeyreğinde Lojistik: Belirsizlikleri Yönetme Zamanı - Ekonomi Dünya", "source": "Ekonomi Dünya", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxPMG8yMEpNdlZKczlHWVhHdXlHc1ZuT1pLSGdoaDF1Z0oydThQaUc1N2MtbG1xTUJBbWhmaW1YRTE5NGlzX2RQaE40REU3OHJISkRvNWM2OWJKWXVEdXdpaVh4VGFwZDZ2bGp4UHp3ZW4wMHhtMnRJUmQwZmxBWkZOVGtLS254WFJadFVMMzkzbVlQQk56cnZiNWJoWUlvQ3Z5ZzBLUDBwSXdVNzRLLU5GamRfVFFWUFN3Vmc?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-16T10:08:52+00:00", "terms": [ "zam" ], "weight": 0.6 } ] } }, "history": [ { "generated": "2026-09-07T13:15:59.010781+00:00", "score": 0.8, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-07T21:54:13.830128+00:00", "score": 1.0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-08T05:35:01.395279+00:00", "score": 1.1, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-08T11:57:39.517875+00:00", "score": 1.0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-08T17:03:22.298521+00:00", "score": 0.7, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-08T21:32:42.837468+00:00", "score": 0.8, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-09T05:42:03.583637+00:00", "score": 0.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-09T12:08:31.155731+00:00", "score": 1.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-09T17:01:09.640230+00:00", "score": 1.1, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-09T21:29:25.668247+00:00", "score": 1.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-10T05:34:30.806652+00:00", "score": 1.4, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-10T12:02:29.905322+00:00", "score": 1.0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-10T16:53:04.858579+00:00", "score": 1.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-10T21:23:02.972868+00:00", "score": 6.1, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-11T05:36:07.149073+00:00", "score": 6.3, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-11T12:00:24.139915+00:00", "score": 6.4, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-11T16:54:15.458938+00:00", "score": 25.6, "status": "WATCH" }, { "generated": "2026-09-11T21:32:17.008615+00:00", "score": 25.8, "status": "WATCH" }, { "generated": "2026-09-12T05:23:11.415720+00:00", "score": 25.7, "status": "WATCH" }, { "generated": "2026-09-12T11:27:04.806078+00:00", "score": 25.6, "status": "WATCH" }, { "generated": "2026-09-12T15:58:39.150938+00:00", "score": 25.6, "status": "WATCH" }, { "generated": "2026-09-12T21:11:35.639161+00:00", "score": 25.7, "status": "WATCH" }, { "generated": "2026-09-13T05:38:37.277033+00:00", "score": 25.9, "status": "WATCH" }, { "generated": "2026-09-13T12:31:36.070261+00:00", "score": 25.6, "status": "WATCH" }, { "generated": "2026-09-13T16:48:57.872774+00:00", "score": 25.5, "status": "WATCH" }, { "generated": "2026-09-13T21:14:24.847790+00:00", "score": 25.5, "status": "WATCH" }, { "generated": "2026-09-14T05:45:40.477596+00:00", "score": 25.2, "status": "WATCH" }, { "generated": "2026-09-14T13:37:16.174887+00:00", "score": 8.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-14T22:15:11.149848+00:00", "score": 8.3, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-15T05:47:14.743799+00:00", "score": 8.4, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-15T12:26:53.126829+00:00", "score": 8.6, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-15T17:27:52.202942+00:00", "score": 6.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-15T21:54:28.725197+00:00", "score": 6.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-16T05:37:13.209642+00:00", "score": 6.0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-16T12:24:24.187795+00:00", "score": 5.7, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-16T17:27:05.592359+00:00", "score": 13.1, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-16T21:52:09.798195+00:00", "score": 13.0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-17T05:42:26.937513+00:00", "score": 13.0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-17T12:24:28.658703+00:00", "score": 13.0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-17T17:27:02.807609+00:00", "score": 12.6, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-17T21:55:17.442985+00:00", "score": 12.6, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-18T05:32:16.197542+00:00", "score": 12.6, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-18T12:03:15.447082+00:00", "score": 12.6, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-18T16:55:21.427760+00:00", "score": 12.6, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-18T21:24:19.675175+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-19T05:28:41.319670+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-19T11:46:32.544515+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-19T16:13:07.974179+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-19T21:17:10.450209+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-20T05:41:19.911791+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-20T12:00:32.346169+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-20T16:40:32.441405+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-20T21:09:37.274569+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-21T05:53:08.551538+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-21T13:35:51.285774+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-21T22:25:21.584893+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-22T05:50:57.168614+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-22T12:20:12.870573+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-22T17:30:47.893616+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-22T21:45:45.522623+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" } ], "sources": [ { "name": "TCMB", "role": "Official daily USD/TRY reference rates", "url": "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/kurlar/kurlar_tr.html" }, { "name": "FRED / U.S. EIA", "role": "Daily Brent crude series DCOILBRENTEU", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU" }, { "name": "FRED / IMF", "role": "Monthly reserves excluding gold, TRESEGTRM052N", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TRESEGTRM052N" }, { "name": "FRED / OECD", "role": "Monthly consumer confidence, CSCICP02TRM460S", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSCICP02TRM460S" }, { "name": "Google News RSS", "role": "Deterministic Turkish economic-stress narrative sample", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss" } ], "methodology": { "weights": { "lira_dislocation": 0.3, "imported_energy": 0.25, "reserve_buffer": 0.2, "consumer_confidence": 0.15, "narrative_strain": 0.1 }, "fallback_hours": 72, "concurrence_rule": "+5 when a market channel and an independent macro channel are both at least 45" } }