SDCofA PROJECTS
Opening the world.
Loading country models and source-linked dates.
ONE WORLD. EVERY ELECTION.
Türkiye Votes
The 2028 presidential scenarioOpening the atlas…
BEHIND THE HEADLINE
The election desk.
Checking source dates…
| COUNTRY / ELECTION | WHEN | DATE STATUS | BRIEF |
|---|
National feed coverage includes some territories, referendums and indirect votes. Expected months and years are preserved.
Tested against the past.
Honest about the future.
Each retrospective test uses only preceding elections from the same data provider as features. Unverified party identities are not joined across providers. The momentum setting is selected using earlier test dates. A last-election baseline is measured alongside the model.
| ELECTION | INPUTS THROUGH | MODEL LEADER | ACTUAL LEADER | ERROR / OUTCOME |
|---|
What the model measures
The target is the party or alignment with the largest national vote share, or the largest share of reported parliamentary seats where a separate seat-only family is labelled. It does not infer seat majorities, coalition agreements or government control. Historical party labels identify blocs, not certified future candidates.
The error range uses the observed 90th-percentile leader-share error. It is not a calibrated confidence interval or a win probability. Sparse, stale and unsupported series are labelled. A single result produces only a continuity baseline.
These are retrospective tests using reconstructed current historical records, not forecasts actually published before the elections. Party reorganisations, new candidates, source revisions and regime changes limit comparability. The preset Türkiye 2028 scenario is excluded from validation.
Download every historical test and training cutoff ↗SDCofA Projects.
Provisional election-night calls remain separate from future models. Detailed race-call coverage currently covers selected US Senate and governor races. Every call retains its source and reported-return timestamp.
OPEN SOURCES. VISIBLE LIMITS.
Every projection has a paper trail.
Dates & historical outcomes
elekt links national records to their original sources. ParlGov (Döring et al., 2023), Elections Global (Döring & Düpont, 2020), PPEG 2025 and MECo supply CC0 research series. Modern Pakistani totals credit Gallup Pakistan/Open Data Pakistan (CC BY, version unspecified). Zambian presidential totals credit Phiri/DataLab, University of Zambia (CC BY 4.0).
elekt ↗ · ParlGov ↗ · Elections Global ↗ · PPEG ↗ · Model data ↗elekt: CC0 / CC BY-SA 4.0 and original source terms. Per-election provenance is retained.
Independent SDCofA model
The model and retrospective tests are computed from historical outcomes. Free OpenRouter models separately review result calls. Future candidates and changes of government are not inferred from incumbency alone.
Country model records ↗ · Code & method ↗Türkiye & imagery
Erdoğan portrait: Presidency of Azerbaijan, CC BY 4.0. Ankara panorama: Wiggum, CC BY-SA 4.0. National outlines: Natural Earth, public domain. Portraits provide context, not ballot certification.
Photo sources & licences ↗ · YSK ↗