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        "timestamp": "2026-09-19T18:09:08.379237+00:00",
        "score": 61.1,
        "level": "HEIGHTENED",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 39.7,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 95.4
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-19T20:52:42.907833+00:00",
        "score": 17.1,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 27.8,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-19T23:13:27.027668+00:00",
        "score": 18.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 30.1,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-20T01:16:03.439252+00:00",
        "score": 39.2,
        "level": "WATCH",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 30.2,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 53.6
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-20T06:21:31.880041+00:00",
        "score": 51.8,
        "level": "HEIGHTENED",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 35.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 78.7
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:26:18.308439+00:00",
        "score": 21.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 35.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:51:15.858376+00:00",
        "score": 24.4,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 39.7,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-20T19:29:43.283668+00:00",
        "score": 21.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 35.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-20T22:29:56.140981+00:00",
        "score": 21.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 35.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-21T01:15:50.171707+00:00",
        "score": 15.4,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 7.7,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 27.8
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-21T06:25:21.346571+00:00",
        "score": 62.9,
        "level": "HEIGHTENED",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 39.7,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 100.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-21T14:13:55.315210+00:00",
        "score": 21.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 35.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-21T19:32:06.445524+00:00",
        "score": 21.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 35.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-21T23:20:47.375951+00:00",
        "score": 21.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 35.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-22T05:01:18.423453+00:00",
        "score": 21.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 35.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-22T10:01:37.841312+00:00",
        "score": 21.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 35.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-22T14:58:38.610647+00:00",
        "score": 21.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 35.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-22T18:58:21.707267+00:00",
        "score": 21.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 35.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-09-22T22:13:20.206226+00:00",
        "score": 21.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 35.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0,
          "synchronized_acceleration": 0.0
        }
      }
    ],
    "data_health": {
      "events_considered": 105,
      "independent_sources": 18,
      "market_series_available": 0,
      "available_components": 2
    },
    "method": {
      "name": "Robust multi-domain precursor ensemble",
      "aggregation": "availability-renormalized weighted mean",
      "weights": {
        "narrative_pressure": 0.4,
        "cross_market_dislocation": 0.35,
        "synchronized_acceleration": 0.25
      },
      "market_anomaly": "five-session change vs median/MAD baseline; 1.4826*MAD scale",
      "narrative_taxonomy": {
        "force_posture": [
          "mobilization",
          "mobilisation",
          "reserve call-up",
          "troop buildup",
          "troop build-up",
          "military deployment",
          "airspace closed",
          "airspace closure",
          "no-fly zone",
          "combat readiness"
        ],
        "protective_action": [
          "embassy closure",
          "embassy evacuation",
          "leave immediately",
          "shelter in place",
          "civilian evacuation",
          "travel warning",
          "departure of non-emergency",
          "ordered departure"
        ],
        "coercive_pressure": [
          "ultimatum",
          "blockade",
          "emergency meeting",
          "article 5",
          "collective defence",
          "collective defense",
          "strategic forces",
          "border closure",
          "port closure"
        ],
        "systems_disruption": [
          "internet shutdown",
          "communications blackout",
          "power outage",
          "gps jamming",
          "navigation interference",
          "cyberattack",
          "cyber attack",
          "undersea cable",
          "subsea cable"
        ]
      },
      "warning": "An elevated reading is a triage signal, not proof that a specific event will occur."
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "name": "FRED",
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/"
      },
      {
        "name": "Caldara-Iacoviello GPR methodology",
        "url": "https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm"
      },
      {
        "name": "ViEWS transparent early-warning design",
        "url": "https://viewsforecasting.org/"
      }
    ]
  },
  "methodology": {
    "name": "LLM Border Threat Taxonomy",
    "description": "OpenRouter free routing chooses the final country attribution and canonical threat category for each headline.",
    "weights": {
      "military_conflict": 8.0,
      "terrorism": 7.0,
      "border_security": 5.0,
      "political_instability": 4.0,
      "humanitarian_crisis": 3.0,
      "diplomatic_tensions": 2.5,
      "trade_agreement": -2.0,
      "neutral": 0.0
    },
    "formula": "PerCountry = 1 + 9*(1 - exp(-avg(weight)/5 * 1.2)); Composite = weighted_avg(PerCountry)",
    "scale": {
      "min": 1.0,
      "max": 10.0,
      "thresholds": {
        "STABLE": [
          1.0,
          4.0
        ],
        "ELEVATED": [
          4.0,
          7.0
        ],
        "CRITICAL": [
          7.0,
          10.0
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "briefing": {
    "regional_summary_6h": {
      "slot_start": "2026-09-22T12:00:00Z",
      "slot_end": "2026-09-22T18:00:00Z",
      "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:58:21Z",
      "next_refresh_at": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z",
      "window_hours": 6,
      "source_event_count": 12,
      "source_countries": [
        "Bulgaria",
        "Iran",
        "Iraq",
        "Syria"
      ],
      "headline": "Border-country reporting stayed active across 4 neighbors.",
      "bullets": [
        "12 scored signals passed the feed and coverage gates for the completed window.",
        "Country placement uses source-country attribution while automated re-attribution is unavailable.",
        "Review high-weight events directly before treating the regional picture as settled."
      ],
      "watch": null
    }
  }
}